Abstract
Clinical detection thresholds for ctDNA assays are set empirically without theoretical foundation. This Perspective applies the Neyman-Pearson framework and Shannon information theory to derive the minimum detectable tumour fraction in closed form as a function of sequencing depth and error rate, calculate the channel capacity of ctDNA sequencing assays, and situate current clinical assays relative to theoretical limits.
Venues
Preprint: medRxiv · Oncology
Journal target: npj Precision Oncology (Nature Portfolio)
Citation
Walker A. (2026). Information-Theoretic Limits of Circulating Tumour DNA Detection: A Signal Detection Theory Framework for Clinical Threshold Specification. Vitacore Research Collaborative. medRxiv · Oncology.